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  pdftitle={La Palma Earthquakes},
  pdfauthor={Steve Purves; Rowan Cockett},
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\journalname{Earth and Space Science}

\draftfalse

\begin{document}
\title{La Palma Earthquakes}

\authors{Steve Purves\affil{1}, Rowan Cockett\affil{1}}
\affiliation{1}{Curvenote, }
\correspondingauthor{Steve Purves}{steve@curvenote.com}


\begin{abstract}
In September 2021, a significant jump in seismic activity on the island
of La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain) signaled the start of a volcanic
crisis that still continues at the time of writing. Earthquake data is
continually collected and published by the Instituto Geográphico
Nacional (IGN). \ldots{}
\end{abstract}

\section*{Plain Language Summary}
Earthquake data for the island of La Palma from the September 2021
eruption is found \ldots{}




\section{Introduction}\label{introduction}

\textsubscript{Source:
\href{https://FISH460-2026.github.io/crab-pairasites-AA/index.qmd.html}{Article
Notebook}}

\protect\phantomsection\label{cell-fig-timeline}
\begin{figure}[H]

\centering{

\pandocbounded{\includegraphics[keepaspectratio,alt={An event plot of the years of the last 8 eruptions on La Palma.}]{index_files/figure-pdf/fig-timeline-1.pdf}}

}

\caption{\label{fig-timeline}Timeline of recent earthquakes on La Palma}

\end{figure}%

\textsubscript{Source:
\href{https://FISH460-2026.github.io/crab-pairasites-AA/index.qmd.html}{Article
Notebook}}

\textsubscript{Source:
\href{https://FISH460-2026.github.io/crab-pairasites-AA/index.qmd.html}{Article
Notebook}}

Based on data up to and including 1971, eruptions on La Palma happen
every 79.8 years on average.

Studies of the magma systems feeding the volcano, such as Marrero et al.
(2019), have proposed that there are two main magma reservoirs feeding
the Cumbre Vieja volcano; one in the mantle (30-40km depth) which
charges and in turn feeds a shallower crustal reservoir (10-20km depth).

Eight eruptions have been recorded since the late 1400s
(Figure~\ref{fig-timeline}).

Data and methods are discussed in Section~\ref{sec-data-methods}.

Let \(x\) denote the number of eruptions in a year. Then, \(x\) can be
modeled by a Poisson distribution

\begin{equation}\protect\phantomsection\label{eq-poisson}{
p(x) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^{x}}{x !}
}\end{equation}

where \(\lambda\) is the rate of eruptions per year. Using
Equation~\ref{eq-poisson}, the probability of an eruption in the next
\(t\) years can be calculated.

\begin{longtable}[]{@{}ll@{}}
\caption{Recent historic eruptions on La
Palma}\label{tbl-history}\tabularnewline
\toprule\noalign{}
Name & Year \\
\midrule\noalign{}
\endfirsthead
\toprule\noalign{}
Name & Year \\
\midrule\noalign{}
\endhead
\bottomrule\noalign{}
\endlastfoot
Current & 2021 \\
Teneguía & 1971 \\
Nambroque & 1949 \\
El Charco & 1712 \\
Volcán San Antonio & 1677 \\
Volcán San Martin & 1646 \\
Tajuya near El Paso & 1585 \\
Montaña Quemada & 1492 \\
\end{longtable}

Table~\ref{tbl-history} summarises the eruptions recorded since the
colonization of the islands by Europeans in the late 1400s.

\begin{figure}

\centering{

\pandocbounded{\includegraphics[keepaspectratio]{images/la-palma-map.png}}

}

\caption{\label{fig-map}Map of La Palma}

\end{figure}%

La Palma is one of the west most islands in the Volcanic Archipelago of
the Canary Islands (Figure~\ref{fig-map}).

\begin{figure}[H]

\centering{

\pandocbounded{\includegraphics[keepaspectratio,alt={A scatterplot of earthquake locations plotting latitude against longitude.}]{index_files/figure-latex/notebooks-explore-earthquakes-fig-spatial-plot-output-1.png}}

}

\caption{\label{fig-spatial-plot}Locations of earthquakes on La Palma
since 2017}

\end{figure}%

\textsubscript{Source:
\href{https://FISH460-2026.github.io/crab-pairasites-AA/notebooks/explore-earthquakes-preview.html\#cell-fig-spatial-plot}{Explore
Earthquakes}}

Figure~\ref{fig-spatial-plot} shows the location of recent Earthquakes
on La Palma.

\section{Data \& Methods}\label{sec-data-methods}

\section{Conclusion}\label{conclusion}

\section*{References}\label{references}
\addcontentsline{toc}{section}{References}

\protect\phantomsection\label{refs}
\begin{CSLReferences}{1}{0}
\vspace{1em}

\bibitem[\citeproctext]{ref-marrero2019}
Marrero, J., García, A., Berrocoso, M., Llinares, Á., Rodríguez-Losada,
A., \& Ortiz, R. (2019). Strategies for the development of volcanic
hazard maps in monogenetic volcanic fields: The example of {La} {Palma}
({Canary} {Islands}). \emph{Journal of Applied Volcanology}, \emph{8}.
\url{https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-019-0085-5}

\end{CSLReferences}




\end{document}
